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Abdelmohsen, S M A (2011) An ethnographically informed analysis of design intent communication in BIM-enabled architectural practice, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Abraham, G L (2002) Identification of critical success factors for construction organizations in the architectural /engineering /construction (A/E/C) industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Ahmed, S M (1993) An integrated total quality management (TQM) model for the construction process, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Appau, K A (1994) An integrated model of computer-aided cost estimating/scheduling in construction management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Ayyub, B M (1983) Structural safety analysis of reinforced concrete buildings during construction (fuzzy set), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Bakheet, M T (1995) Contractors' risk assessment system, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Beard, J L (2011) Theoretical framework for determinants of A/E/C firm value, strategy and continuity: An analysis incorporating corporeal, volitional and knowledge assets, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Bertz, M D (1998) Situated learning methodologies and assessment in civil engineering structures education, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Dabbas, M A A (1981) Computerized decision making in construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Davis, W J (1997) An evaluation of life cycle factors for urban arterial roadways, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

El-Itr, Z M (1992) Equal business opportunity programs in the construction industry: A framework for development and implementation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Goodman, R E (1998) Taxonomy of knowledge requirements for executives of general contracting and construction management enterprises, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Haj Kazem Kashani, H (2012) A real options model for the financial valuation of infrastructure systems under uncertainty, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

  • Type: Thesis
  • Keywords: education; careers; estimating; professional
  • ISBN/ISSN:
  • URL: https://www.proquest.com/docview/1221989473
  • Abstract:
    Many governments confront a gap between the rising demand for transportation infrastructure systems and the financial resources that they have historically used for meeting this demand. They are seeking innovative solutions to close this growing gap between the cost of much needed transportation infrastructure systems and their available financial resources. The Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model is growingly adopted by governments in order to achieve these objectives. Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) is a form of PPP model that is commonly used for financing, development, and operations of transportation projects. In a BOT project, the private partner, known as the concessionaire, has the responsibility to finance, design, build and operate a facility for a specific period of time under a concession contract. The concessionaire typically raises return on its investment through the user charges. Moreover, when it comes to the valuation of real options in transportation projects, it is typically impossible to estimate the correct risk-adjusted discount rate that reflects the market risks, unique project risks and asymmetric benefit patterns of options. The existing literature on the application of real options in transportation infrastructure management does not address this problem. Due to these limitations, the application of current real options models to the valuation BOT investments under traffic demand uncertainty does not lead to the determination of market value of real options. Furthermore, the current real options models do not determine the concessionaire’s financial risk profile under traffic demand uncertainty. Finally, the current models cannot characterize the impact of Minimum Revenue Guarantee and Traffic Revenue Cap options on the concessionaire’s financial risk profile. The primary objective of this research is to apply the real options theory in order to explicitly price Minimum Revenue Guarantee and Traffic Revenue Cap under the uncertainty about future traffic demand. This research objective is achieved through the creation of an investment valuation model for BOT transportation projects under traffic demand uncertainty. This model characterizes the long-term traffic demand uncertainty in BOT projects and determines the concessionaire’s financial risk profile under uncertainty about future traffic demand. Moreover, it utilizes a novel method for estimating the project volatility for real options analysis. Further, the model uses a market-based option pricing approach to determine the value of Minimum Revenue Guarantee and Traffic Revenue Cap options. Finally it presents the appropriate procedure for characterizing the impact of Minimum Revenue Guarantee and Traffic Revenue Cap options on the concessionaire’s financial risk profile. In order to illustrate the proposed model and highlight its capabilities of the model presented in this research, it is applied to the Incheon International Airport Highway (IIAH) project in the Republic of Korea. This research contributes to the body of knowledge on the application of real options in transportation infrastructure management. It presents an approach that combines Monte Carlo simulation and the stochastic processes, and can be used for estimating the project volatility. Moreover, it presents a market-based risk-neutral option pricing approach in order to determine the fair value of Minimum Revenue Guarantee and Traffic Revenue Cap mechanisms in BOT projects. The proposed model can help public and private sectors better analyze and understand the financial risk of BOT projects under traffic demand uncertainty. The private sector can use this model to make better entry decisions to BOT highway projects considering their expectations about the costs and risks of the project as well as the level of revenue guarantee provided by the government. The government can use this model to identify the appropriate Minimum Revenue Guarantee and Traffic Revenue Cap thresholds that encourage the private investments without compromising its futu e budgetary strength. (Abstract shortened by UMI. )

Khuncumchoo, N (2007) Roof maintenance record analysis toward proactive maintenance policies, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Lluch, J F (1981) Analysis of construction operations using microcomputers, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Loria Arcila, J H (2002) Major issues impacting affordable housing developments in Mexico, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Maldonado-Fortunet, F (2002) Sustainable development criteria for the evaluation of highway projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Meredith, J E (1999) Strategic management for construction organizations: Assessment and development of strategies to enhance corporate success, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Mogge, J W, Jr. (2004) Breaking through the first cost barriers of sustainable planning, design, and construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Moore, B C (1993) Modeling risk of lunar construction activities: A technology assessment approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Mulva, S P (2004) ARIES: A theoretical framework for evaluating aspects of enterprise sustainability, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Ospina Alvarado, A M (2011) Unified framework for construction project integration and its potential association with project performance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Paris, D E (2002) A residential satisfaction decision support system for affordable housing, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Park, M-W (2012) Automated 3D vision-based tracking of construction entities, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Pearce, A R (1999) Sustainability and the built environment: A metric and process for prioritizing improvement opportunities, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Perkins, J A (1992) Institutionalizing transportation infrastructure investments and economic development: The role of state departments of transportation in multi-state economic development activities, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Rouhi, S (2011) Framework for owner's project requirements for total structural systems (OPRTSS), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Shakoorian, A (2006) Performance assessment of building commissioning process as a quality assurance system, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Shin, K-C (2000) Identification of critical dispute characteristics (CDCs) during construction project operations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Sillars, D N (1998) Pre-operational attributes as predictors of organizational success within a joint venture: Modeling joint venture formation in the architecture/engineering/construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Smith, V R R (2008) Impact to alternative contracting methods using multivariate analysis in the regulatory environment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Srisethanil, C (1996) Pedagogical framework for an engineering intelligent tutoring system, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Tavakoli, A (1983) Productivity analysis of heavy construction operations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Venugopal, M (2011) Formal specification of industry foundation class concepts using engineering ontologies, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Verheij, J M (2005) Process-mediated planning of AEC projects through structured dialogues, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.

Xu, G (2011) Assessment of risk of disproportionate collapse of steel building structures exposed to multiple hazards, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Georgia Institute of Technology.